UPDATE Wednesday 9:30pm – While the path of Earl is still unknown some of the models are showing it building to a major hurricane and passing close the south eastern US. There is also another disturbance behind Earl that is favored to turn into a tropical storm.
Quoted from Jeff Masters blog this afternoon
“The latest GFS model run develops this wave into a tropical depression 3 – 4 days from now. I can’t see any reason why this would not occur. Conditions for tropical cyclone development will remain favorable in the Eastern Atlantic for at least the next week, and the GFS models has successfully predicted the development of both Danielle and TD 7 over the past two weeks. This new wave probably has a better chance of hitting the U.S. East Coast than either Danielle or TD 7.”